Rollercoaster Harvests are Becoming More Common in the Agricultural Sector

From soybeans to sorghum, instability is the new normal.

Hotter, drier conditions are making global food production increasingly erratic, according to new research from the University of British Columbia.

Published in Science Advances, the study shows that climate change is amplifying year-to-year swings in yields in the agricultural sector for three staple crops: corn, soybeans, and sorghum.

For every degree of warming, yield variability rises by 7% for corn, 19% for soybeans, and 10% for sorghum. That instability could turn once-in-a-century crop failures into once-a-decade events by 2100, straining farmers, driving up food prices, and deepening hunger in vulnerable regions.

“Farmers and the societies they feed don’t live off of averages—they generally live off of what they harvest each year. A big shock in one bad year can mean real hardship, especially in places without sufficient access to crop insurance or food storage.”

— Dr. Jonathan Proctor, Assistant Professor

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